AUSTRALIAN BUDGET – 2011 - Back to the black swan

The Government promises to have the budget back in the black in 2012-13, forecasting a modest surplus of $3.5 billion…. But will there be a Black Swan

The deficit this year is $49.4 billion - up nearly $10 billion on the previous estimate - and will fall to $22.6 billion next year, up from the estimated $12 billion – attributable to black swans….

The major initiatives are:

· new $1.5b program to address mental illness
· $360m National Workforce Development fund to deliver 130,000 training places
· $425m in bonuses for excellence in teaching
· up to $4,200 in new support for low-income families with teenagers still at school or in training
· $200m for more school facilities and programs for disabled students
· $222m to expand school chaplaincy program to 1,000 more schools
· $1.8b for regional health services
· 16,000 skilled migrants allocated to regions to take advantage of mining boom
· low-paid workers to have tax offset paid during year rather than at tax time 

In all, the Government has flagged new spending of more than $19 billion and savings of $22 billion.



Positives

· Money for training to upskill Australia – various programmes your company can take advantage of
· Looking to bring in 15,000 skilled migrants
· Funding for Health $16.4b– especially mental Health $1.5b - Reduction of Company tax to 29% in 2013
· big cuts in Public Service $2b and Defence $2.5b
· 2011-12 Federal Budget measure to allow refunds of excess concessional superannuation contributions of up to $10,000 for first time breaches from 1 July 2011.
· $425m for teachers performance bonuses
· $4.3b for the bush – hospitals, health care, universities and roads + NBN
· Support to SME $5000 of up front write off for cost of work car – woopee doo!!


Negatives

· $50b deficit this year, $22b deficit next year and budgeting for $3.5b surplus in 2013 – yeah right!!
· "Australian businesses embrace fierce competition, but many are feeling the pinch of workforce shortages and our rising dollar," Mr Swan said.Swan talks about the pain of Exporters but does nothing to support them – although the EMDG programme that has been a major support for exporters has shown a 12 to 1 return of revenue per $ spent 

· Swan does nothing to support Innovation – key to continued growth of the Economy
· shelving the Green Car Innovation Fund
· a $500 million cut in renewable energy programs
· 4% growth in GDP expected, 4.5% unemployment rate – Rate rise seems on the cards… may be kept down because of high A$ - Reserve Bank will have their work cut out for them
· Asylum seeker stuff 

Assumptions

· BRIC countries – specifically China will continue to grow and rely on our Minerals
· We are have been on a roll in last few years, and look at our deficit!!
· No Black Swans 

Comments from Around the traps

The Australian is calling this a "nip and tuck" budget of "thousands of tiny cuts".

The ABC economics correspondent Stephen Long, called it as "tough as tofu". and quotes from the lyrics of Lou Reed: "Vicious - you hit me a flower."

Australia now has a twin-speed economy - Swan called it a "patchwork economy".

This budget was about "jobs, jobs, jobs", said Swan.

Australian economy cannot continue to rely on the resources boom for its revenues - partly because the mining giants, like Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, are investing so heavily in infrastructure, for which they receive tax deductions.

Western Australia Premier Colin Barnett claims the federal government's emphasis on the mining boom as the driving force of the national economy will prove to be "inherently flawed" because only the resource rich states will significantly benefit. It will not flow to Sydney nor Melbourne

Xingweiinc ♥♫ lisa ,xing,☼ ♥ Wayne swan kicked mothers in Australia in the teeth " and family,s .So heartless ..Cant believe labor would do that @@

CHRIS UHLMANN Channel 7: But if you could miss your back by $8 billion this year and $10 billion the next, anything like that would see you miss your surplus by a considerable mark in two years' time, so why can't we just focus on the now rather than the never-never?

Greens leader Bob Brown said the budget was "lacklustre" and his party, which will hold the balance of power in the Senate from July 1, would discuss changes with the treasurer.

Joe Hockey – said the governments budget is bullshit and rubbish

LyndsayFarlow Lyndsay Farlow $32m saved from "rationalisation of corporate functions"#FewerDepartmentalPissUps #budget2011 #auspol

Asked why he thought Treasurer Wayne Swan did not mention the words environment or indigenous in his speech, Senator Brown said: "I just think there's a mind-blank there."

And what do I think? Swan needs to ensure that more money comes in than goes out, and there is a good chance there will be a surplus!