Monday, July 25, 2016
View from my Broker
The ASX 200 is pushing its way through 5400 as expected, but following our break we see a more substantial rally into year-end developing. Short-term we see risks of a small pullback, however by year-end we see 6000 being hit.
•How? A major revival in the resources sector (which is currently underway) AND banks rebounding. With my long-held bullish view on bonds changing, so too is my bearish view on banks.
•I am not long-term bullish on our local bank stocks – rather a 6 to 9 month view. The underlying issues regarding property values, over supply, bad debts remain, but for the near-term they have played out. As a result a substantial rebound can occur and together with gains in resources and industrials the ASX 200 can hit 6000.
•The ASX 200 has made literally zero progress since the beginning of 2010 and is due for a substantial rally. When looking at the weekly chart top left, the current base formation is now of 12 month duration. There were only two other similar set-ups since the GFC – 2009 and 2013 – both led to 700+ point rallies.
•From 5400 that suggests 6100 – but on the conservative side we will target 6000
•This is a very strong view we hold for the local market and not just a mere passing observation. We will be using dips over the coming weeks to build our prop book positions to benefit from what we expect to be a very strong trend.
•While we haven’t checked as of yet, we suspect that fund managers are still relatively underweight local equities with Brexit creating an element of fear and the sharp rebound following gave little opportunity for investors to get set.
•5350/5300 is as far as any pullback is likely to reach.
If you are interested , contact me and I will refer you to an awesome financial planner!!
Sunday, July 24, 2016
Innovation in Australia: Satya Nadella, Microsoft's CEO, has his work cut out for him!! : Great article about where Satya is taking Microsoft, and how he plans to get there!
Friday, July 22, 2016
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Friday, July 15, 2016
The entrepreneurs polish summit was a great gathering of 2000+ Polish entrepreneurs, business leaders and government ministers. The Polish start-up ecosystem is receiving €6 billion in innovation capital from the EU over the next four years. It will be interesting to see how they balance the equilibrium between talent and technology.
Wednesday, July 06, 2016
DENHAM SADLER | startup smart
Melbourne HR tech startup LiveHire has raised $10 million through an IPO that valued the company at $40 million.
Founders Michael Haywood And Antonluigi Gozzi says it’s a company-wide rule to not check how the startup is faring in the public market.
“We have a rule that people in the business can’t talk about the share price,” Gozzi tells StartupSmart.
We’re here to build a global tech company.”
According to its prospectus, LiveHire had revenue of $135,570 for the year ending December 31, 2015, and a net loss during this time of more than $2.1 million.
But after completing four private funding rounds, Haywood says the time was right to take the company public, despite the low revenue.
About listing , Haywood says
“All investors in Australia who want to participate in an Australian tech company now can make up their mind if they want to participate.”
The cash injection from the IPO will be used to accelerate LiveHire’s growth strategy in Australia and look to expand internationally, as well as developing sales and business development capabilities and investing in the company’s technology.
Commentary inspired by Geoffrey Garrett - Dean at Wharton School
There is 1 certainty -
Uncertainty fucks with our sharemarkets
There is another certainty - is that there are sharemarket cycles!
There is a contagion of Brexit aftershocks. The more uncertainty and the longer the uncertainty - Investors hold cash and wait - markets go down
The contagion of the thought of an Australian hung parliament -
Investors hold cash and wait - markets go down
The resignation of the Cameron and Boris Johnson standing down as candidate - Investors hold cash and wait - markets go down
The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, made the extraordinary statement that the UK is suffering from “economic post-traumatic stress disorder.”
Is same when Paul Keating said
"Australia is a banana republic"
When our own leaders criticises our country - what do our citizens think?
A country needs a strong leader
- A leader we can trust and be proud of
- A leader that has a solid vision and can handle the shit that is flung - brexit, crashes, wars, ideologies
the pain uncertainty inflicts can be immense.
However - is this a good time to buy?
Economics Is about risk and return
- Higher risk - higher return
When the Japanese invasion threatened Sydney Harbour in the Second World War - savvy investors bought up Sydney Harbourside land - and are now one of the richest landowners in Sydney.
If the fundamentals solid and the opportunity still exists - buy low and sell high!
Or follow a rising tide or sell in a down turn?
In the crash of 2008 -
Banks called in loans -
- businesses were acquired for cents in the dollar
- People who bought cheap assets ( USA property) did well
It was a call for change -
What was the aftermath of 2008 - Washington and the world reacted quickly and decisively to end the uncertainty. The US bailed out the banks. Central banks cut interest rates to zero. The G20 and Australia committed to massive fiscal stimulus.
Those who won were those who
- had a clear vision
- Had ++ knowledge
- had the balls to take action
- acquired distressed assets
Is this the end - or is this just a low phase in a cycle?
My view - is to take the advice of my late grandfather - buy low and sell high !